2022 Oscar predictions: Experts pick the winners – Los Angeles Times

Last Looks Before Closing the Books: It’s something of a 3.1 round of the buzz meter, as several panelists have fine-tuned their predictions for Oscar winners by following the results of other awards. so if you’re looking to polish up your oscar pool picks… now is the time!

In one of the most volatile prize seasons in recent memory, several major races have seen the leads shrink dramatically and even change in recent weeks.

How have buzzmeter predictions aligned with guilds and how will they be affected by critic groups? two categories that have seen a lot of movement recently, and another three are leaning in new directions.

As they progress through each round, panelists ranked their selections in each category, with the first choice receiving the most points and the last receiving the fewest. Do you have your own ideas about who and what will get the roses at the Oscars? fill out your own whiteboards in our surveys. this week: We’re featuring the winning predictions from our award-winning geniuses in another category with big last-minute changes: Best Picture.

and now, polls in all 10 categories are open!

1. “the power of the dog”2. “belfast”3. “coda”4. “west side story”5. “dune”6. “king richard”7. “drive my car”8. “licorice pizza”9. “don’t look up”10. “nightmare alley”

“the power of the dog” is still the leader of the pack, but no longer by consensus, and his pursuers are on his neck.

kenneth branagh’s “belfast” and sian heder’s “coda” have closed the gap considerably, although “dog” picked up the award at both the baftas and the ccas.

jane campion’s noirish investigation into toxic masculinity topped all movies with 12 oscar nominations, including receiving nods in every category the buzz predicted, and even added one to that List (Jesse Plemons supporting actor). assent). As panelist Glenn Whipp puts it, “‘The Power of the Dog’ led the field with 12 nominations. Let’s not get too cute here. unless the bias against streamers runs deep, the jane campion western will win.”

“coda” makes a big leap following his string of tour wins, including the sag ensemble award, from no. 8 to no. 3. After round 3.1 buzzmeter updates, the American adaptation of the French “La Famille Bélier” not only took several high-profile writing awards, but also the PGA award. the pga doesn’t have a great correlation rate with the best picture oscar (only 67% lifetime, and 65% over the last 10 years, counting the 2013 tie between “gravity” and the eventual oscar winner “12 Years a Slave”), but after that win, the acting awards, and a string of writing awards, punters have taken notice.

“Dog”, until recently a huge favorite at -250 on, say, covers.com, has dropped to -140 in the last few days before the ceremony. that’s a drop in implied probability from 71% to 57%. meanwhile, “coda” has rocketed solidly to second place at +110, or an implied chance of 48%. that’s close to giving an idea of ​​the “coda” move, betting concerns like olbg were 8% to win at the beginning of the month and are now at 44%.

Despite early speculation that the film might be “too sweet” for the academy, several tipsters have been publicly wondering if the film’s feel-good thrill might be just what it needs to offset the dusty grittiness. Of the dog”. In short, with the Oscars just days away, the race for best picture is suddenly wide open.

following heder’s film, three others are lumped into the pack: Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard,” Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,” and Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” are separated by only a handful of dots. .

Making 2022 the fourth year in a row that a non-English language film is nominated for best film is “drive my car”, winner of a number of critics awards including lafca awards for best film and screenplay, and director finalist. Haruki Murakami’s adaptation received Oscar nominations in all three categories, plus one for International Feature Film, giving it a “parasite”-like sheen, though probably not bright enough to top the power of ” dog”.

The academy declined to include any of the 10 highest-grossing films of 2021 (domestic or worldwide) in the best picture field, leaving “dune” as the only box office hit nominee, unless one counts “don’t look up.” Netflix’s unverified accounting claims the film has logged close to 400 million streaming hours, whatever that means, relative to box office equivalency or even total viewers. who knows?

“don’t look up” may have divided the critics (a little over 50% on rotten tomatoes), but it’s “nightmare alley” far behind in round 3. martin scorsese can back it up with hype for guillermo del toro’s dark carnival (and may also be clicking his heels because marvel didn’t get a best picture nomination for “spider-man: no way home”), but panelist tim cogshell scoffs: “what academia is insensitive to how much people dislike ‘nightmare alley’ it’s amazing.”

Notable absences include “the lost daughter”, “spencer”, “tick, tick… boom!”, “house of gucci”, and “be the ricardos”.

1. jane campion (“the power of the dog”)2. paul thomas anderson (“licorice pizza”)3. ryûsuke hamaguchi (“drive my car”)4. kenneth branagh (“belfast”)5. steven spielberg (“west side story”)

jane campion is the first woman to be nominated twice for best director. she is also one of only two consensus picks to win her category in round 3 of the buzzmeter. by all indications of hers, her misstep at the critics’ choice awards hasn’t significantly tarnished her candidacy (at least not among the panelists, none of whom traded her votes for her. ).

The director of “dog power” has been on top all awards season, and the panel still thinks “dog” could have its day, making its adapter, producer and director the third woman to win in the category. address category. It’s fun to think of one of the world’s most respected filmmakers for decades as “this year is anything,” but this year’s three campion nominations (including one for screenplay) are analogous to Chloé Zhao’s four-nomination feat last year. past. If Campion wins all three of its categories, as the panel expects it to, it would top Zhao’s win total (in the Directing and Best Picture categories).

Both the film and the director are big favorites among industry watchers and betting odds. covers.com, for example, has campion ahead by the widest margin in any of the categories listed (-700 to win, vs. runner-up steven spielberg at +850, a huge gap).

panelist anne thompson calls campion “a lock”; dave karger says “campion seems sure to follow chloé zhao as the winner here” and justin chang and claudia puig see echoes of the earlier campion-spielberg matchup, with a different outcome: “she’s facing steven spielberg again, as she she did it in 1993, when she won for ‘schindler’s list,'” says puig. “only this time she will win.”

If ryûsuke hamaguchi, an unlikely (as is anyone whose last name doesn’t rhyme with “champion”), succeeds in “driving my car,” he would be the third consecutive Asian filmmaker to accomplish the feat, after none in the 1990s years prior to the awards. (That’s right, Akira Kurosawa never won a competitive Oscar.)

On the omissions, panelist tim cogshell says, “I’d trade [reinaldo marcus from ‘king richard’] green for several of the nominees, and give myself a couple for maggie gyllenhaal and her movie (‘the lost daughter’ ) in both categories.”

Others who failed to make the cut despite strong credentials include Denis Villeneuve, whose “Dune” received 10 nominations, including best picture, and had received a DGA nomination; Pedro Almodovar; and the other three directors whose films are in the best picture field: sian heder (“coda”), adam mckay (“don’t look up”), and guillermo del toro (“nightmare alley”).

1. olivia colman (“the lost daughter”)2. Jessica Chastain (“Tammy Faye’s Eyes”)3. nicole kidman (“being the rich ones”)4. penelope cruz (“parallel mothers”)5. kristen stewart (“spencer”)

In what has been the most volatile of all the races the buzzmeter tracks, the favorites just a couple of weeks ago now have a new no. 2 contenders between them: Jessica Chastain from “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”.

olivia colman (“the lost daughter”), kristen stewart (“spencer”) and nicole kidman (“being the rich”), the top three after the nominations were announced, are still very close, even more so with the chastain shoehorned his way into the herd. After Colman, just three points separate the other four contenders, including Penélope Cruz (“parallel mothers”). however, stewart has dropped to fifth position.

colman retains the top spot in this sort of 3.1 round, but splits the no. 1 of her chooses evenly among the panelists: three of her chose her; three chosen chastain. why the extreme move, chastain jumping from no. 5 year. 2 on the buzzer? due to her great victories in the sags and ccas. The BAFTAs provided no clarity for the category, as in a rarity, there was no overlap at all between her and the Oscar nominations (Joanna Scanlan won for “After Love”).

How close is the race? Many betting companies still don’t have a clear favorite (nobody in “lower money”), with the top two (eg Kidman at +120 and Stewart at +175 at one site) barely separated. however, covers.com’s pete watt says that chastain went “+500 (16.7% implied probability)…[and] is now as short as -150 (60% ip).” In other words, the gambling community has taken notice as well.

panelist justin chang sums up the “clarity” of the competition thus: “a race of absolutely diabolical complexity, made even more so by the shocking omission of lady gaga. don’t trust anyone who says they know what’s going to happen. that said … olivia colman. no, nicole kidman. no, kidman stewart. yes, stewart stewart, sure. i think. i hope.”

There was some question as to whether Stewart would make the final five, following her omissions from featured lists, including sag and bafta, but the buzzmeter never doubted her. The panel correctly predicted all five nominees, including Cruz, another surprising snub.

1. will smith (“king richard”)2. benedict cumberbatch (“the power of the dog”)3. denzel washington (“the tragedy of macbeth”)4. andrew garfield (“tick, tick…boom!”)5. javier bardem (“being the richards”)

The panel sees this race tightening considerably between Will Smith (“King Richard”) and Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”).

smith holds serve to lead, but cumberbatch closes the gap, probably due to the not inconsiderable goodwill the academy showed as a “dog” (12 nominations). Smith, however, has been sweeping the awards circuit (earnings from the sags, bafta, and ccas, among many others), cementing his candidacy.

javier bardem (“being rich”), andrew garfield (“tick, tick…boom!”) and denzel washington (“macbeth’s tragedy”) are also nominated.

Nicolas Cage (“Pig”), Clifton Collins Jr. (“jockey”), bradley cooper (“nightmare alley”), hidetoshi nishijima (“drive my car”), adam driver (“annette” and “house of gucci”) mahershala ali (“swan song”) are not , with peter dinklage (“cyrano”) among the most surprising omissions.

panelist justin chang says: “‘benedict cumberbatch and will smith will split the majority vote, allowing andrew garfield to slip in’ is the kind of ridiculous theory that never works. that being said…hope so ?”

while panelist tim cogshell says, “not being nominated usually means one just wasn’t nominated; it does not necessarily mean that one was snubbed. That being said… peter dinklage was not nominated for his phenomenal performance in ‘cyrano,’ he was snubbed!”

1. ariana debose (“west side story”)2. kirsten dunst (“the power of the dog”)3. aunjanue ellis (“king richard”)4. jessie buckley (“the lost daughter”)5. judi dench (“belfast”)

Ariana Debose remains a heavy favorite for her reprise of the previously Oscar-winning role of Rita Moreno in “West Side Story,” and Kirsten Dunst also received plenty of panel love for her work in “The Power of the Dog.” ”

debose, who has been racking up wins from critics groups including the los angeles film critics association, also took home the sag, bafta and cca, which bodes very well for his candidacy. Ever since Kate Winslet took home the SAG Awards Supporting Award for “The Reader” in 2009 while picking up the main trophy for the same film at the Oscars, the guild and the academy have only failed to line up in this category once (2018 ). Debose is applying to join some terribly exclusive clubs (along with Moreno), should he succeed.

Panelist Claudia Puig confidently picks her for her “brilliant performance,” saying, “It’s certainly time for another Latina to win an acting Oscar, though it would be nice if it wasn’t always for the same role.”

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Meanwhile, panelist tim cogshell says that while he was “in love” with debose’s work, “kirsten dunst is still very much around.”

Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”) makes the cut, as expected, along with two who didn’t make the top rung of the Buzzmeter Round 2 list: Judi Dench (“Belfast”) and Jessie Buckley ( “the lost daughter”).

among those omitted, including favorites caitríona balfe (“belfast”), riley keough (“zola”), saniyya sidney (“king richard”), olga merediz (“in the heights”), one of the favorites requested One particular sore comment: “Ruth Negga, like ‘pass’, is too good for the Oscars,” panelist Justin Chang said of the actress and filming the Academy completely, um, overlooked.

1. troy kotsur (“coda”)2. kodi smit-mcphee (“the power of the dog”)3. ciarán hinds (“belfast”)4. jk simmons (“being the rich ones”)5. jesse plemons (“the power of the dog”)

There’s a new leader in the clubhouse. kodi smit-mcphee had been the favorite since round 1 for his work on “the power of the dog”, and held that spot until now, but after big wins on the circuit, troy kotsur as the happy-go-lucky dad on “coda” now is not. 1, according to the buzzer.

“smit-mcphee has had people talking for months, but ‘coda’ has had a late rise, including high-profile wins for kotsur,” says panelist dave karger. “so I hope [kotsur] has a historic victory.”

after becoming the first deaf male actor to receive an oscar nomination, kotsur told times, “with subtitles and sign language, [‘coda’ is] an inclusive story that can give people a new perspective. …so don’t limit yourself, hollywood. you need to break down these barriers and not be afraid and do something new. there are no rules in art, right?”

also on the side of kotsur’s candidacy: while jesse plemons’ surprise nomination may be evidence of the academy’s fondness for “dog”, it also presents a vote-splitting scenario that could benefit the star of ” coda”. however, while that may have been a factor in the bafta results (won by kotsur over smit-mcphee and plemons, et al), plemons was not nominated and kotsur prevailed over smit-mcphee (et al) anyway to Critics’ Choice. prizes and perhaps the most important predictor: falls. only twice since 2007 are the sags and oscars not aligned in this category. (ccas have the same alignment rate, but not the same membership overlap with academia as sags)

The betting community seems to agree. “Kotsur’s chances have tripled from +400 a month ago (20% implied chance) to -150 (60%),” according to covers.com’s Pete Watt.

smit-mcphee had led the entire season for good reason: claudia puig calls her performance “disturbing”; Anne Thompson calls it “fascinating”; glenn whipp says the film “belongs to smit-mcphee. he is the reason why he probably saw it more than once.”

the other nominees: ciarán hinds for “belfast” and previous winner j.k. simmons for “being the richards”.

1. “liquorice pizza”2. “belfast”3. “king richard”4. “the worst person in the world”5. “don’t look up”

Two odes to the authors’ hometowns comfortably top the list: Paul Thomas Anderson’s ’70s Valley fantasy, “Licorice Pizza”; and fond memories of kenneth branagh from the neighborhood of his youth, “belfast”. they’re close in total points, but the panel gives “liquorice” the edge.

“paul thomas anderson now has 11 oscar nominations. I’d say he’s overdue for a trophy,” says panelist Glenn Whipp, echoing the sentiment of several.

on the other hand, panelist dave karger says: “paul thomas anderson might as well win for his love letter to the angels, but i think kenneth branagh will finally win an academy award after eight nominations spanning seven staggering categories . .”

“king richard” gets a job and, as those sneaky buzzes suspected, the swedish “worst person in the world” gets it too. Perhaps to the annoyance of some, “don’t look up” has a name, but it couldn’t have been that big of a surprise, it also got a nod from wga.

notably not on the list: wes anderson’s love letter to literary journalism, “the french dispatch”; “Come on, let’s go” by Mike Mills, “Parallel Mothers” by Pedro Almodóvar and the much-loved “Luca” by Disney-Pixar.

1. “the power of the dog”2. “the lost daughter”3. (tie) “coda”3. (tie) “drive my car”5. “dune”

jane campion’s adaptation of thomas savage’s novel, “the power of the dog” is still the favorite (it was a previous winner in the original screenplay category, for “the piano”), but “drive my car”, From director/co-writer Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and co-writer Takamasa Oe, and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s adaptation of Elena Ferrante’s novel, “The Lost Daughter,” are not far behind.

panelist dave karger says, “march 27th will be a night to remember for jane campion – this is one of three oscars i hope she wins that night.”

in round 3.1, “the lost daughter” rises to no. 2 place and “coda” moves into a tie for no. 3 with “drive my car”, even though some of the panelists were more passionately supportive of the Japanese film. “drive my car” not only expands a haruki murakami short story into a multi-layered three-hour feature, but extracts two other murakami stories and uses the unique device of a multilingual “uncle vanya” stage production to plumb the depths of chekhov’s text.

whipp says, “‘drive my car’ is clearly the highlight, a script that retains the intimacy of its source material while expanding it into a grand story of love and regret.”

as chang says, “here’s hoping academy voters of (ahem) chekhov ‘drive my car’ on their ballots.”

“Coda” writer-director Sian Heder rounded out her American version of the French film “La Famille Bélier” with memorable characters and relationships. and for his tactile and atmospheric adaptation of frank herbert’s classic sci-fi novel “dune” (10 nominations), writer-director denis villeneuve embraced the book’s sociopolitical themes and characters, and showed the wisdom of not trying to squeeze everything in one. movie.

Perhaps the most surprising omission: Tony, Pulitzer, and Emmy winner Tony Kushner’s “West Side Story” update, which greatly deepens the context of the surrounding story and backstories of various characters, and was surely a key component to the success of the best picture nominee.

1. “drive my car” (ryûsuke hamaguchi, japan)2. “the worst person in the world” (joachim trier, norway)3. “run away” (jonas poher rasmussen, denmark)4. “the hand of god” (paolo sorrentino, italy)5. “lunana: a yak in the classroom” (pawo choyning dorji, bhutan)

“drive my car” is, of course, the strong favorite here, considering the panel’s support in so many other categories, not to mention its nominations in three other top oscar categories (adapted screenplay, director and picture). he’s been a behemoth throughout awards season and the second of two consensus picks in round 3 of the buzzmeter.

While the panelists acknowledge the film’s juggernaut status (justin chang writes, “there’s no suspense about whether ‘drive my car’ will win here. the question is whether that’s all it will win”), both tim cogshell like anne thompson they see the “worst person in the world” as viable competition. Says Thompson, “‘Drive My Car,’ with nominations for director, screenplay and best picture, should easily take this, but the more accessible ‘Worst Person in the World’ also got a nod for best screenplay.”

“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” may have the best title among the nominees, but the panel doesn’t expect it to put Bhutan at the bottom of its competition: It sits in last place in Round 3. Meanwhile, “ flee” makes Oscar history by being nominated in three feature film categories: international, animated and documentary.

panelist dave karger says, “this is an easy win for the beloved ‘drive my car.’ meanwhile, ‘flee’ will have the distinction of losing out in three different best feature categories.”

1. “charm”2. “the mitchells against the machines”3. “lucky”4. “ray and the last dragon”5. “run away”

the lin-manuel miranda/magical realism-driven “charm” remains in first place (“I think ‘charm’ is going to charm the academy as much as it charmed me,” says panelist claudia puig), but “the mitchells vs. the machines”, the wild and eccentric saga of an imperfect family battling perfect robots, comes even closer in round 3.1.

panelist glenn whipp believes the disney movie’s other oscar nominations are indicative of the academy’s mood: “’charm’ also earned nominations for score and song, a sign of its popularity. it’s a sure thing.”

And that’s not to mention its massive success on the music charts: all eight of Miranda’s songs charted at the same time and the soundtrack is the most successful in years. his eight non-consecutive weeks at no. 1 (so far) make it one of only three albums of any kind to reach that many in the last five years, according to billboard. That popular surge can’t hurt his chances of winning an Oscar. In addition, he won the bafta.

however, “mitchells” won the cca and dominated the annies with eight awards, including best feature film.

Completing the top 5: international competitor “flee”, pixar’s “summer dream” as described by panelist anne thompson, “luca” and disney’s “raya and the last dragon”.

Among the top titles left out of the final list: anime master mamoru hosoda’s savage reimagining of “beauty and the beast” in the cyber age, “belle” and the French mountaineering drama, “the summit of the gods”. ” tim cogshell says: “‘the summit of the gods’ was the most exciting and engaging animated movie this year, but ‘belle’ is the most delicious and my favorite.”